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World Meteorological Organization: The possibility of La Nina in the next three months is more than 50%. The latest forecast released by the World Meteorological Organization on the 11th shows that the possibility of La Nina in the next three months is more than 50%. It is expected that the intensity of La Nina will be weak and the duration will be short. According to the introduction of the World Meteorological Organization, the current El Niñ o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index is in a neutral state, which is neither El Niñ o nor La Nina. According to the forecast, from December 2024 to February 2025, the possibility of changing from the current neutral state to La Nina phenomenon is 55%. The forecast also shows that from February to April 2025, the possibility of returning to neutral state is 55%. (Xinhua News Agency)Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.Private exporters reported that they sold 334,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data. Private exporters reported that they sold 334,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations and delivered them in 2024/2025. The annual soybean market in the United States began on September 1st.

Insiders: Incorporating national debt and index funds into the scope of personal pension products is expected to increase the scale of deposit. On December 12, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the General Administration of Financial Supervision and other five departments officially issued the Notice on the Full Implementation of Personal Pension System, which stipulated that national debt should be included in the scope of personal pension products on the basis of existing financial products such as wealth management products, savings deposits, commercial pension insurance and Public Offering of Fund. E Fund believes that the index funds included in personal pension products are mainly broad-based and dividend products, which are also in line with the long-term stable value-added investment goal of pensions. Because the broad-based index reflects the overall performance of a certain type of market, covering a wide range of industries, with a large number of constituent stocks and scattered risks, the pension investment time is often as long as several decades. In a market with healthy and sustainable economic development prospects and long-term upward trends, the broad-based index can help pension investors share the fruits of economic growth and obtain long-term stable returns. It is reported that with the inclusion of national debt in the scope of personal pension products, it is widely expected that this move will further increase the scale of personal pension payment. (per warp net)Eurozone government bond yields barely changed, and eurozone government bond yields barely changed, after the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected. Michael Brown of Pepperstone said in a report: "The interest rate cut was accompanied by a policy statement, which' copied and pasted' the policy guidance issued after the October meeting." The ECB reiterated that it would "follow the method of data dependence and successive meetings to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance." According to Tradeweb's data, after the interest rate was determined, the yield of two-year German government bonds was 1.941%, slightly lower than the previous 1.951%, while the yield of 10-year German government bonds was 2.130%, which was almost unchanged that day.Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.

The European Central Bank expects inflation to cool down faster. It is reported that the European Central Bank now expects inflation to cool down slightly faster than the forecast in September. It currently predicts that the average inflation rate in 2024 and 2025 will be 2.4% and 2.1% respectively, compared with the previous forecast of 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. In the statement, the European Central Bank also said: "The anti-inflation process is on the right track."Central Economic Work Conference: Give play to the traction role of economic system reform and promote the landmark reform measures to be effective. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11 to 12. The meeting proposed to complete the deepening and upgrading of state-owned enterprise reform with high quality and introduce the private economy promotion law. Carry out special actions to standardize law enforcement involving enterprises. Formulate guidelines for the construction of a unified national market. Strengthen supervision and promote the healthy development of platform economy. Make overall plans to promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and increase local independent financial resources. Deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, open up the blocking points of medium and long-term funds entering the market, and enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system. (Xinhua News Agency)Ceng Gang, Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory: Judging from the economic situation and policy space, it is still possible to lower the RRR and cut interest rates in the future. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. In this regard, Ceng Gang, chief expert and director of Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, said that the tone of "moderately loose" monetary policy is in the same strain as that of Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party. China's monetary policy has been adjusted from "steady" to "moderately loose", aiming at boosting economic growth and alleviating downward pressure through a more active monetary policy, while providing support for key areas and structural adjustment. In response to the expression of "timely RRR cuts and interest rate cuts", Ceng Gang believes that from the current economic situation and policy space, it is still possible to implement RRR cuts in the future, especially in targeted cuts to required reserve ratios, to release long-term liquidity; The possibility of interest rate cuts is also greater, and it is expected that a one-time large-scale interest rate cut will be implemented at the end of this year or early next year. (SSE)